Officials in Tehran are weighing the transfer of a massive number of Afghan refugees across its western borders into neighboring states. This step forms part of what officials describe as a necessarily more offensive and unpredictable strategy following the attacks on its nuclear facilities and the EU restoration of UN sanctions.
Multi-Pronged Offensive Involves Expansion of Missile Programme
The broad strategy encompasses growth in its missile development, strengthening air defences, suspending cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog and, on 18 October, preventing the formation of a UN committee to supervise the implementation of the reimposed sanctions. Authorities continue to resist to resuming negotiations with the US, convinced that discussions would not succeed.
Refugee Threat Echoes Turkish President's Warning
The warning about migrant movement in a western direction and also eastward resembles the warning issued by the leader of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who warned of sending countless Syrian migrants towards Europe.
Iran has at times been host to as many as 6 million Afghani migrants, but human rights groups state that in 2025, one million Afghans have been sent back to their home country, after escaping economic hardship or Taliban control.
Amnesty claimed the large-scale returns had been scaled up following the June 12 Israeli strikes on Tehran's officials and nuclear facilities. Reports suggest 500,000 Afghans were deported over the border since June.
Document Nullification for Migrants
Prior to March of this year, several million Afghans were allowed to legally reside temporarily in Iran by securing a registration paper. Those granted this document were eligible for limited services, such as public health services, public education, work authorisation, banking access and ability to enter into rental agreements. However, officials nullified these headcount documents.
The Iranian authorities have given different figures about the number of Afghan refugees in the nation, but estimates suggest a at least two million are in Iran illegally. The UN refugee agency forecasts that up to 4 million Afghans may be sent back to Afghanistan in the coming months.
Comprehensive Plan of Repair and Recovery Under Way
A wide-ranging reconstruction effort is under way in Iran, involving debates about the tools it possesses to safeguard its interests in the wake of the joint strikes by Israel and the US in the summer. Tehran has called back its diplomats from European nations for consultations at the Iranian foreign office about the crisis.
Authorities are hesitant about leaving the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, partly since the substantive steps were already implemented to end co-operation with the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Negotiation Offers and International Response
Tehran representatives state that in discussions with the French at the United Nations meeting, Tehran proposed to allow weapons inspectors to visit one bombed nuclear site at Natanz, and additionally suggested to report on its stockpile of enriched nuclear material within 45 days. In return, Iran wanted the risk of reinstatement of United Nations penalties to be lifted permanently, rather than for three months, the initial proposal from France.
Tehran alleges the US refused to engage with these proposals, which Iran views as has become an increasingly erratic and amateurish American diplomacy led by Steve Witkoff, a figure viewed by Tehran as either outside the loop or duplicitous. For example, Witkoff was sending the Iranian delegation traveling to the United Nations information about a discussion he planned to conduct with Iran’s diplomats, but he then scrapped the meeting completely.
Forthcoming Negotiation Conflict and Russian Role
In the anticipated negotiation dispute with the US, analysts predict that on 18 October Moscow, as current president of the UN Security Council, will exercise its authority as a permanent council member to block the establishment of a UN committee to monitor and oversee the penalties restored by the European Union.
Russia and China have sent letters to the UN leader, António Guterres, to state European countries lacked the authority to reimpose the penalties as they did in late September, since Europe in their view was no longer a participant in the nuclear deal, and had not used the dispute resolution mechanism.
The deadlock suggests that some countries will not comply with the enforcement of the UN sanctions. Japan, Canada and Turkey have already started to reimpose the sanctions, but states aligned with Russia and China will not do so. The President Erdoğan of Turkey, for example, signed an executive order mandating financial blocks on Iranian individuals and entities associated with Iran's atomic projects and key government financial institutions.
Effects of Penalties on Iranian Economy
Officials say the most damaging sanctions on Iran are the current American restrictions, and by comparison the restored UN sanctions dating back from from 2006-10 are relatively narrow, since they do not cover Iran’s oil programme but instead specific asset freezes, weapon restrictions and bans on missile trade.
But Tehran accepts that even the partial return of UN sanctions is having an impact economic confidence and currency values. The price of the dollar in Iran’s free market has set a new record.
