Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
