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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, though experts suggest PVV is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock top result and established a four-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign focused on issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with several experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the vote yields a party one MP. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of power. But, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require several months, analysts indicate that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.